Posted under Electrical Engineering, Green Economy

 By Steve Lohr – New York Times - April 30, 2009

 

In the mid-1990s, the Internet took off because its technological time had come. Years of steady progress in developing more powerful and less expensive computers, Web software and faster communications links finally came together.

 

A similar pattern is emerging today, experts say, for what is being called smart infrastructure — more efficient and environmentally friendlier systems for managing, among other things, commuter traffic, food distribution, electric grids and waterways. This time, the crucial technological ingredients include low-cost sensors and clever software for analytics and visualization, as well as computing firepower.

 

Wireless sensors can now collect and transmit information from almost any object — for instance, roads, food crates, utility lines and water pipes. And the improved software helps interpret the huge flow of information, so raw data becomes useful knowledge to monitor and optimize transport and other complex systems. The efficiency payoff, experts say, should translate into big reductions in energy used, greenhouse gases emitted and natural resources consumed.

 

Smart infrastructure is a new horizon for computer technology. Computers have proven themselves powerful tools for calculation and communication. The next step, experts say, is for computers to become intelligent instruments of control, linking them to data-generating sensors throughout the planet’s infrastructure. “We are entering a new phase of computing, in which computers will be interacting with the physical world as never before,” said Edward Lazowska, a professor of computer science at the University of Washington.

 

Computer-enhanced infrastructure promises to be a lucrative market. And the outlook has seemingly improved in the economic downturn, as governments around the world embrace stimulus spending that relies heavily on public works projects, both high-tech and low.

 

A handful of big technology corporations, including I.B.M., Cisco and General Electric, have major initiatives under way — I.B.M. has even branded its campaign, “Smarter Planet.” Yet many other companies, both large and small, are also pursuing opportunities.

 

Just how large the market will be and how quickly it will develop remain uncertain. The early smart-infrastructure ventures often seem like applied science projects, encouraging but small scale. It is not clear whether they will work outside the laboratory, where they must turn a profit or justify higher taxes or user fees. Much of the early Internet investment, after all, came to grief.

 

The smart infrastructure wave, analysts warn, could bring a similar cycle of enthusiasm and disappointment. Yet, like the Internet, they say, the technology will prevail in the long run.

 

“There will be a lot of hype and a lot of things that don’t pan out,” said Rosabeth Moss Kanter, a professor of business administration at the Harvard Business School. “But the direction is absolutely right. We’ve barely scratched the surface of how information technology can help control and conserve energy use.”

 

I.B.M., with its large research labs and technology services business, has the most experience in the widest range of digital infrastructure projects. Many of its most advanced projects are in Europe, where energy costs are higher than in the United States. But while Europe remains a few years ahead, there is growing interest and investment in America, said Sharon Nunes, a scientist who heads I.B.M.’s environmental innovations group.

 

In the utility sector, I.B.M. has “smart grid” programs under way with several governments and companies, using sensors, software and computerized household meters to maintain power lines and reduce energy consumption. A Department of Energy demonstration project in Washington State, using I.B.M. technology, concluded that peak loads on utility grids could be trimmed by 15 percent. Nationally, such a reduction over a 20-year period would eliminate the need for the equivalent of 30 large coal-fired plants.

 

In the field of distribution, I.B.M. is working with food producers and retailers to begin reducing the $48 billion of food that is thrown away in the United States each year. In Norway, it has a project with the nation’s largest food supplier that uses radio frequency identification, or RFID, tags and tracking software over the Internet to optimize shipments from the farm to supermarket shelves, reducing spoilage.

 

In China, I.B.M. worked with the China Ocean Shipping Company, a big international shipper, using optimization and simulation models to consolidate 100 distribution centers into 40. The re-engineering of its distribution network cut the Chinese company’s operating costs by 23 percent and reduced carbon dioxide emissions by 15 percent, I.B.M. said.

 

In water management, I.B.M. is collaborating with the Nature Conservancy on its Water for Tomorrow project, which is monitoring and creating computer modeling for large river basins in Brazil, China and the United States, to help guide land use and water policies.

 

The company used its computer chip factory in Burlington, Vt., as a test bed for improving the efficiency of industrial water use. Using sensors to calibrate water flows and temperatures, analytics software and optimizing models, I.B.M. reduced its water consumption at the plant by 27 percent, or 20 million gallons a year, even as manufacturing output increased 30 percent.

 

The plant saves $3 million a year, partly from reduced costs for water and treatment, I.B.M. said, and energy savings — less pumping, cooling and heating the water — account for 60 percent of the cost reduction.

 

“It started out as a water-saving program and then we really saw the energy savings,” Ms. Nunes said. “And that’s true in industrial, agricultural and household use, this incredible interplay between energy and water.”

 

Today, I.B.M. is building smart traffic systems in cities including London and Brisbane, Australia, but its standout success has been in Stockholm.

 

In 2006, Stockholm experimented with congestion pricing, charging cars up to $4 to enter the downtown area, depending on the time of day. The cars were monitored with RFID cards and webcams that photographed license plate numbers. Drivers had to pay within two weeks or faced penalties, but I.B.M. linked the driver data to 400 convenience stores in the city to make payment easier.

 

Within a few weeks, the impact in Stockholm was evident, and it has proved permanent. Car traffic in downtown Stockholm has been reduced by 20 percent, carbon dioxide emissions have dropped 12 percent, and the city’s public transport system has added 40,000 daily riders, I.B.M. said. The webcams accurately read license plates, even on snowy days, more than 95 percent of the time. So the RFID tags are no longer in use. After expenses, the smart traffic system generates $80 million a year for the city.

 

Stockholm is a city in a Scandinavian country with a long environmental tradition, in a socially democratic nation. Yet even in Stockholm, there were complaints initially. The city also took the risk of installing the entire system, calling it a trial, and then having residents vote on it seven months later, after the benefits were apparent.

 

“These systems can be pretty hard to implement politically,” observed Naveen Lamba, a transportation expert in I.B.M.’s global services unit.

 

In New York, Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg learned that lesson last year, when state legislators brushed off his plan for a smart traffic system in Manhattan. Mr. Bloomberg’s proposal to charge drivers $8 to enter a congestion zone south of 60th Street during peak hours was supported by civic, labor and environmental groups as a way to ease traffic and to finance improvements in mass transit. But many New Yorkers, especially those outside Manhattan, viewed the mayor’s plan as a tax on their ability to move around their own city.

 

In Amsterdam, which hopes to cut its carbon footprint 40 percent by 2025, the city is trying a different approach, by persuading commuters to stay put instead of taxing them when they come.

 

As part of a “smart city” project, Amsterdam is working with Cisco and other companies to set up remote, high-tech work centers. A pilot smart work center opened in September in Almere, whose residents routinely commute to Amsterdam. The center is equipped with high-speed, Internet-linked computer work stations, high-definition video conferencing and even child day care. The Dutch experiment, Cisco says, is being closely followed by dozens of cities.

 

In San Francisco, Cisco has experimented with enticing commuters to try public transportation by offering a bus that has wireless Internet access for passengers and on-board touch screens that are fed constantly updated information on connections and wait times. Reliable journey times, surveys show, are what commuters most value.

 

The hybrid-fuel bus — a pilot project that ended earlier this year — also had a “green gauge” feature that allowed passengers to calculate the carbon-emission savings on their trips. “Visibility is crucial,” said Rick Hutley, a Cisco consultant. “When people see the environmental impact and can measure it, they jump on board and participate.”

 

Even railroads, a 19th-century technology, are getting more high-tech intelligence. In a trial with one of the nation’s largest railroads, G.E. is using sensors on tracks, sidings and locomotives; sophisticated computer models; and optimization software to fine-tune the flow of traffic across the railway network.

 

As a result, trains wait less and travel at higher speeds, an increase of 2 miles per hour on average. That may seem small, but each mile per hour improvement translates into $100 million in efficiency gains including energy savings, G.E. said. And new locomotives amount to computers on rails, wirelessly downloading information on trips, traffic, terrain and loads, and making adjustments. Such automated cruise control delivers energy savings of up to 13 percent.

 

“Both the trains and the tracks are evolving and getting smarter and smarter,” said Christopher Johnson, an expert in computing and decision science at G.E.’s research labs.

 

Posted under Green Economy

Inquiries, Sales and Funding Rise in Anticipation of New Regulations — and Spending — From Obama Administration

By SIMONA COVEL  -WSJ - JANUARY 13, 2009

While many small businesses continue to struggle with tight credit and declining sales, one fledgling industry is seeing a boom in investment and sales growth: alternative energy.

Alternative-energy firms are reporting an influx of inquiries and business from a wide range of companies looking to increase their energy efficiency, especially from those that believe the Obama administration will impose stricter regulations requiring them to conserve energy. President-elect Obama has spoken often of the importance of alternative energy, also known as clean technology, and his federal stimulus package is expected to include plans to beef up alternative-energy infrastructure and improve energy efficiency in government buildings. In a speech last week, he called for the U.S. to double the production of alternative energy in three years.

So start-ups across a variety of areas — solar power, biofuels and energy conservation among them — are getting increased financing from venture capitalists and lenders at a time when other small companies are cutting back and being turned away by investors. And many are hiring more staff, boosting marketing efforts and expanding geographically.

Alternative energy “has been the brightest sector in venture capital over the last year,” says Brian Fan, research director at Cleantech Group, an industry trade organization in San Francisco. “Everyone is thinking it’s going to be a big priority of the incoming administration.”

While the overall volume of venture-capital deals sank last year, investments in clean-technology companies totaled $8.4 billion, up nearly 40% from 2007, according to Cleantech Group. In the third quarter alone, venture capitalists poured $2.6 billion into clean technology, a quarterly record. In the fourth quarter, they invested $1.7 billion.

Some venture capitalists think clean technology is the next big thing — the innovation that will drive the economy, much as Internet-related ventures did a decade ago. “Anytime big innovation comes along, it brings the chance to build big companies,” says Erik Straser, general partner at venture-capital firm Mohr Davidow Ventures in Menlo Park, Calif., which has investments in several alternative-energy start-ups.

But whether the administration will turn to energy initiatives quickly enough for all these companies to reap the rewards remains to be seen. And unlike with other new types of technology companies, the growth of clean technology “depends on the right kind of government policies and incentives,” Mr. Fan says, because implementation requires a certain amount of infrastructure and tax credits to offset the expense for users.

“The policy side is absolutely critical,” he says. “If [the right policies] don’t get pushed through, we will see a good number of these start-ups suspend operation.”

Just the anticipation of a new administration has been enough to spur interest among companies. Green Panel Inc., a solar technology and installation company in Brighton Mich., is planning to add four employees to the 14-person, two-year-old firm over the next few weeks to handle new business that has come in since the election. Even though no new energy regulations are in place yet, big companies are starting to take a look at alternative-energy options, says Adam Harris, Green Panel’s chief executive. He says one industrial firm held off on an order of solar panels until after the election. And he has heard from other firms whose executives want to have systems in place ahead of any regulations for big companies.

“What’s really changed is the push from the top — the fear of what could happen if they don’t” put plans in place to cut dependence on nonrenewable energy like fossil fuels, Mr. Harris says. The firm expects to double its revenue this year to nearly $4 million.

Executives at venture-capital backed Greenline Industries Inc., a Larkspur, Calif., maker of biodiesel production equipment, believe the Obama administration will create a huge demand for biodiesel and other advanced biofuels. The president-elect has said he’ll require that 60 billion gallons of advanced biofuels are produced by 2030, spurred by tax incentives and government spending. The appointment of former Iowa governor Tom Vilsack as agriculture secretary makes increased demand even more likely, Greenline executives say, because of his commitment to ethanol production in his state.

Greenline, which has 35 employees, declines to offer specific projections but plans to triple its sales staff in the coming weeks. “It’s a reaction to the administration change and to changes we expect as a result of the people [Mr. Obama] has picked — the policies that will be happening and the growth in demand we expect,” says Donn Tice, Greenline’s chief executive. The company’s latest round of venture-capital financing was in March, for $20 million.

Mr. Tice says calls from potential customers have picked up in the weeks since the election, and he expects the pace to accelerate once Mr. Obama takes office. In December, Mesilla Valley Transportation signed a deal with Greenline for a 10 million-gallon processing plant, part of a multistage, $25 million project of a company offshoot called Global Alternative Fuels. The election “expedited things,” says Dean Rigg, chief financial officer of the transportation company in Las Cruces, N.M., which started processing biodiesel fuel with Greenline equipment about 2½ years ago. “We’re all betting” that a push toward new biofuels will come quickly from Washington, he says.

Two weeks after the inauguration, Greenline plans to launch a new corporate logo and a new tagline: “Ask Greenline.” Michael Brown, the firm’s founder, says it’s a response to the idea that more and more people are asking how to develop alternative fuels.

Some small companies are counting on the government itself for new business. Verdiem Corp. sells software that provides centralized control over power consumption, such as remotely turning off computer monitors left on overnight. Over the past year and a half, most of the Seattle-based company’s growth has come from corporate customers. But with Mr. Obama’s declarations that he plans to improve the government’s own energy efficiency, Verdiem Chief Executive Jeremy Jaech sees opportunity. The 60-employee company is planning to add three or four new salespeople to its 20-person sales staff in the weeks ahead to focus specifically on federal operations in Washington, D.C. The company hopes to win the business through the information-technology companies that play a role in managing government buildings.

Mr. Jaech believes Mr. Obama will need to practice what he has preached, reducing energy consumption on the federal government’s estimated 6.5 million personal computers. And Mr. Obama will have to start with his own offices, he believes. For his company, Mr. Jaech adds, “it’s low-hanging fruit.”

But while Mr. Jaech anticipates quick growth from Washington, Verdiem is hiring in stages. “I know the federal government can take a while to do things,” he says.

Write to Simona Covel at simona.covel@wsj.com

Posted under Green Economy

David R. Baker, San Francisco Chronicle Staff Writer - March 12, 2008

The alternative energy business is starting to make real money.

Worldwide sales for companies specializing in biofuels, wind farms, solar panels and fuel cells grew 40 percent in 2007 to reach $77.3 billion, according to an annual report issued Tuesday by Clean Edge, a research firm that studies the green technology industry.

That’s significant revenue for an industry crowded with startups, many of which don’t yet have finished products to sell. But other companies - including major corporations such as General Electric - have waded into the field, selling their wind turbines and solar panels around the globe.

Revenue in the wind power industry alone jumped 68 percent in 2007 to reach $30.1 billion as new wind farms sprouted across the United States and China. Sales of ethanol and biodiesel, together, grew about 24 percent to hit $25.4 billion. Solar photovoltaic sales grew 30 percent, totaling $20.3 billion.

As imposing as those figures might seem, they’re small by the standards of the traditional energy business, especially when individual oil companies report annual sales greater than $100 billion. But for green tech, the increasing revenues suggest that the young industry is gaining traction.

“Clean energy has moved from the margins to the mainstream, and the proof is in these numbers,” said Ron Pernick, co-founder of Clean Edge. The firm, based in San Francisco and Portland, Ore., provides research to businesses and investors looking to profit from the green tech industry.

Alternative energy companies are riding a wave of interest started by the rise in the price of oil, which has more than tripled in five years. Their fortunes also have been buoyed by concern about global warming, which most scientists blame on the carbon dioxide that comes from burning fossil fuels. Investors have been pumping money into alternative energy companies, many of them based in the Bay Area.

With oil setting yet another all-time price record Tuesday - topping $108 per barrel - the report’s authors expect alternative energy’s rapid growth to continue. Clean Edge projects that the industry’s annual, global revenues will hit $254.5 billion by 2017, while the industry will continue to soak up venture capital investments.

“As the price of oil goes up, up and up, that obviously makes investments in clean energy alternatives more attractive to investors of all shapes and sizes,” said Clint Wilder, one of the report’s authors.

And yet, alternative energy revenue remains a small piece of the world’s overall energy market.

For a sense of scale, look no further than the oil industry, which many alternative energy enthusiasts would love to replace. Exxon Mobil, the world’s largest international oil company, reported $404.5 billion in sales last year - more than five times the entire alternative energy industry combined. And that’s just one company.

Alternative energy revenue “is a tiny fraction of what we spend on oil,” said James Sweeney, an energy economist with Stanford University. “And that’s not counting what we spend on natural gas and coal.”

But that disparity is one of the reasons entrepreneurs and investors are delving into alternative energy. They see room to grow.

“People see these market niches available, and they’re still niches, but niches have this wonderful way of growing over time,” Sweeney said.

Just how much they’ll grow is difficult to predict.

A lot will depend on federal policies concerning energy and climate change. The Clean Edge report’s authors warned that if Congress doesn’t renew tax credits used by renewable energy developers, companies that specialize in solar and wind power will be hard hit. The House has approved an extension, but the Senate so far has not.

“If these credits are not extended by the time they expire at the end of this year, we could see the growth of solar and wind come to a standstill in the U.S.,” Pernick said.

All three leading presidential contenders have called for limiting carbon dioxide emissions and letting companies buy and sell credits to emit the gas. That kind of cap-and-trade system would increase the cost of energy derived from fossil fuels and make alternative energy sources more attractive.

“What that will do to the economics of all these companies is it will make them all much more competitive,” said Fred Krupp, president of the Environmental Defense Fund advocacy group and author of a new book on the alternative energy business, “Earth: The Sequel.” Krupp was not involved in the Clean Edge study.

“I would predict that the revenue growth is going to continue to explode,” he said.

The report also included a list of alternative energy trends to watch in 2008:

– Interest in the next generation of electric vehicles will continue to grow, driven in large part by innovations from small companies, not the major automakers.

– Geothermal power, which uses the Earth’s heat to generate electricity, will continue its recent renaissance, particularly in the western United States.

– And foreign companies will become an increasing presence in the American wind power industry, building wind farms and manufacturing plants in the United States.

E-mail David R. Baker at dbaker@sfchronicle.com.

http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/03/12/MNVBVHVSN.DTL

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Posted under Electrical Engineering, Green Economy, Green New York, Renewable Energy

The wind farm proposed by the state Power Authority would have at least six times the generating capacity of the Steel Winds project, above, in Lackawanna.

Derek Gee / Buffalo News file photo - Updated: 04/22/09 12:12 PM

Power Authority proposes billion-dollar wind farm

By James Heaney -News Staff Reporter

The state Power Authority announced an initiative today that could lead to the construction of a billion-dollar wind farm off the Lake Erie or Ontario shoreline.

The project would involve building a wind farm and also seeding a local industry to manufacture and assemble wind turbines, authority officials say.

“The potential for wind (power) in the Great Lakes is extraordinary,” said Richard Kessel, president and chief executive officer of the New York Power Authority.

Kessel said he has met with numerous wind farm developers, who he said have expressed “a great deal of interest.”

As a first step in developing a wind farm, the authority today issued a request for an expression of interest from developers. That will likely be followed with a formal request for proposals later this year.

The authority envisions a wind farm with a minimum capacity of 120 megawatts — about six times the capacity of the Steel Winds project on the site of the former Bethlehem Steel site in Lackawanna. A 120-megawatt project would involve about 40 wind turbines, which probably would be located miles from the shoreline.

Kessel said the project would cost $700 million to $1 billion and would be in operation in about five years.

To facilitate the project, the authority would sign a power purchase agreement for 20 years, thus providing a developer a guaranteed revenue stream that would allow it to obtain financing for the project. Authority officials said they are open to other options, including a joint venture that could draw on its considerable bonding capacity and cash reserves.

The authority would require the developer to manufacture and assemble the turbines locally, drawing on the region’s industrial capacity. Authority officials said the region has the potential to develop into an assembly hub that could service the growing wind market in the Northeast, Midwest and Ontario.

“The project could make Western New York a center for wind turbine manufacturing,” Kessel said.

jheaney@buffnews.com